Energy played a more contentious role in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election than it has in the past. Unlike at the 2021 election, when commitment to climate action and “net zero” was held in common by the main parties, this time the future of North Sea oil and gas production was a major source of controversy. Energy has emerged as a dominant subject in hopeful and fearful depictions of Scotland’s economic and environmental future.
The election was framed by the earth-shattering geopolitical impact of two major wars which stunted Scotland’s recovery from COVID-19. The rise of both Reform and the Greens points towards a growing discontent being channelled through parties that strongly attach voters’ everyday concerns with major energy policy decisions. Conversely, the SNP’s retained strength belies an important shift in position back towards favouring new offshore licencing, which saw the party reject the environmental position adopted in the late stages of Nicola Sturgeon’s tenure as Scotland’s First Minister.
In recent years, international instability has emerged as a common justification for ditching the commitments to climate action made in the context of the COP26 summit in Glasgow. During the run up to the summit, First Minister Sturgeon had abandoned the SNP’s historic position of favouring “maximum economic recovery”, recognising its incompatibility with climate commitments. This position was summarised by Roseanna Cunningham, the Cabinet Secretary responsible for Climate Change, when she called on Scotland to behave as a “a responsible global citizen” in the 2019 Holyrood debate on climate emergency legislation which set a legally binding climate target of net zero by 2040.
Just three months after COP26, the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine encouraged a revision of British commitments towards net zero and intense debate around the potential for future North Sea oil and gas licencing considering renewed threats to “energy security”. These factors became increasingly pronounced in the 2026 Holyrood campaign following the breakout of hostilities in the Persian Gulf between Iran, Israel and the United States and its allies, which led to a new price spiral and worries about the security of supply.
Energy featured in the Holyrood campaign through messages linking key decisions of state and geopolitics with the day-to-day lives of hard-pressed voters. The SNP reprised their 1970s slogan – “It’s Scotland’s Oil!” – by proclaiming “It’s Scotland’s Energy!” Nationalists argued the UK’s Labour government was misusing Scotland’s hydrocarbons and renewables resources. Only independence would lower bills.
This was a distinctive change in tone from the SNP in comparison with 2021 when climate leadership had been much more wholeheartedly celebrated a future in renewables. A “just transition to net zero” for oil and gas workers was a leading SNP manifesto promise. By contrast, when Stephen Flynn was elected as the new MSP for the North Sea facing Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine constituency (and outgoing SNP Westminster leader) he pledged “the oil and gas industry will have no bigger champion in Holyrood”.
Flynn was run close by the Conservatives as the SNP’s vote share fell by 8.2%. The radical right Reform ran the SNP even closer in Banffshire and Buchan, also within the North East region, cutting Karen Adam’s majority to 364. Both the Conservatives and Reform styled themselves as anti-net zero supporters of oil and gas drilling and opponents of the continued operation of the Energy Profits Levy (EPL). The EPL was initially implemented on oil and gas profits after the 2022 price spike under Boris Johnson’s Conservative government. It has been maintained under Labour along with a ban on further licensing, but this has been moderated to allow “tieback” fields to be developed near existing installations.
Worries about carbon jobs are pronounced in Central Scotland too. Days before the election, Reform’s Scottish leader, Malcolm Offord, released a video on X standing outside the Grangemouth petrochemicals complex, Scotland’s largest industrial site. Grangemouth became a posterchild for Scotland’s ongoing deindustrialisation when Scotland’s only oil refinery closed in 2025. Offord blamed the green commitments and red tape. Closure unfolded between 2023 and 2025 at the hands of Petroineos, a partnership between Jim Ratcliffe’s INEOS and the state-owned PetroChina.
The other major winners from the election, the Scottish Greens, have also made connections to Grangemouth. Their co-leader, Gillian Mackay, hails from the town and has supported union campaigns to save jobs and win industrial investment. The Green campaign underlined steps which linked climate action with public services and social justice by demanding free bus travel which would be paid for through redistributive taxation.
This election was shaped by growing pessimism regarding both the pace of decarbonisation and the social and economic impact of global energy market volatility. Continued dependency on oil and gas has become a source of financial woes for Scottish households since 2022. Yet the prospect of more oil and gas job losses without compensatory employment in renewables or related areas of manufacturing which was hoped for by earlier governments is increasing economic insecurity and pessimism. From Grangemouth to Aberdeen, the unjust transition will continue to dominate Scottish politics.
